DALLAS — My first real job was working in a butcher shop. I still have the stitched markings all over my hands to prove it. And now all these years later, I have a new scar from a meat experience. 

Not long ago, I was at a so-so barbecue joint in Dallas, and I almost choked! It wasn’t on a slice of hastily chewed brisket, either. It happened at the register where the total for two small sandwiches, four sides, and one banana pudding was 50 bucks! Beef prices have beefed up a lot.

Why are prices up?

Professor of Livestock and Food Product Marketing at Texas A&M, Dr. David Anderson, explains what is happening: “We've got record high prices for cattle, the calves that ranchers are selling are record high. The cattle going from a feed lot to a meat packer are record high. And we see that in wholesale beef prices and in the retail price in our grocery stores and restaurants.”

As of this writing, a pound of steak has become 12% more expensive just in 2025. A pound of ground beef is up 14% so far this year. Both are at record highs. Dr. Anderson says part of the issue is that herds have been shrinking over time in this state and nationally, “We've got fewer cattle, both in Texas and the US. In fact, it's the fewest number of beef cows since 1961.”

He says it’ll be hard to increase the herd because of biology and economics. Right now, the profit a rancher pockets for selling a cow for beef is enticing, “I’ve got calculations of over $500 per cow. So, that's pretty big historically. That's probably beating our record of a decade ago.”

No quick fix

But let’s say the rancher resists the fast cash temptation and decides not to sell the calf right now, and instead sets her aside so she can have calves that can be sold for meat in the future. 

That can take a lot of time says Dr. Anderson, “She's not going to have her first calf till she's two years old. So that's two years from now. That calf won't be at its full-grown weight, leaving a feed lot for another 20 months or so.”

So, the rancher’s eventual profit and our extra beef supply take almost four years to materialize. Dr. Anderson says that means, except for seasonal fluctuations, we may be in for these higher beef prices for years to come. 

That may be a welcome development for ranchers here who have cattle to sell. But as I discovered, it is not good news if you offer to pick up the tab at the barbecue restaurant!

Why we’re not paying much more for beef

We could be paying even more for beef, except that heifers have gotten heftier, and steers are stockier, says Dr. Anderson, “They're bigger-boned. They can put on more weight."

He says that is because for decades, cattle here have been crossbred with larger specimens from Europe, like Limousin and Charolais cows, resulting in sort of super-sized cows. Because of that, he says, “We produce more beef per cow than ever before. We’ve become a much more efficient industry. Cattle are bigger than they used to be.”

The Trump tariffs impact

But even at record prices, we continue to eat a lot of beef, so we’re having to import record amounts of it from various countries. And that brings up the Trump tariffs. “I’ll tell you what…tariffs are a hot topic in the beef industry”, says Dr. Anderson.

Some of the countries shipping to us have been hit hard by the president’s tariffs. For instance, Brazil: “We have had some months in recent years where Brazil is our largest source of imported beef.", says Dr. Anderson. 

But now there is a 10% tariff on that Brazilian beef, that can go up to 26.4 percent, and then Dr. Anderson says you have to add on the biggest new tax levied by President Trump — an additional 50%, "So that'll pretty much curtail a lot of beef coming here from Brazil, which cuts our supplies of beef in our market".

Dr. Anderson says increasing tariffs to a potential 76.4% tax on a big beef exporter to the U.S. ultimately ends up putting upward pressure on the price we pay for beef.

To read more insight from Dr. Anderson, click here.