The week ahead economic calendar for 6–10 October 2025 features high-impact events that could drive significant volatility across the markets. Traders may want to prepare for the FOMC minutes release on Wednesday and Jerome Powell's speech on Thursday, both offering critical insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision path. Additionally, eurozone retail sales, UK employment data, and central bank rate decisions in New Zealand and the Philippines will shape market sentiment as investors reassess monetary policy trajectories amid persistent inflation and growth concerns. (Source: S&P Global)

This article breaks down the key economic events and their potential trading implications across major asset classes.

FOMC Minutes (Wed, 8 Oct): Reveals Fed policymaker disagreements on 2025 rate cuts

Powell Speech (Thu, 9 Oct): Fed Chair clarifies monetary policy stance amid mixed economic signals

Eurozone Retail Sales (Mon, 6 Oct): Tests domestic demand strength in recovery phase

UK Jobs Report (Fri, 10 Oct): KPMG/REC data shows employment trends after PMI weakness

RBNZ Rate Decision (Wed, 8 Oct): New Governor Anna Breman's first meeting amid recession fears

Inflation Data: Thailand, Philippines, Brazil, Mexico, Sweden, Norway, Taiwan CPI releases

Trade Balance: US, Canada, Germany, Taiwan publish export/import data

Why it matters for traders: Eurozone retail sales data will indicate whether consumer spending is supporting the region's tentative economic recovery. Recent PMI surveys showed modest service sector improvements, but manufacturing remains under pressure. Strong retail sales could support the euro and European equity indices, whilst weakness may reinforce dovish ECB expectations.

Trading impact:

EUR/USD: Positive surprise could lift the pair towards resistance levels

European Indices: German DAX and Euro Stoxx 50 sensitive to consumption trends

ECB Rate Expectations: Weak data may increase odds of prolonged accommodative policy

Construction activity data provides insights into sectors sensitive to interest rate changes and fiscal policy. The UK's construction PMI will be particularly watched following disappointing September flash PMI data showing economic deceleration.

Other Monday releases:

Mexico Consumer Confidence (September)

Brazil Balance of Trade (September)

Switzerland Unemployment Rate (September)

Hong Kong SAR S&P Global PMI (September)

India HSBC Services PMI (September)

The US trade deficit continues to influence dollar strength and policy discussions around tariffs. August data will show whether import demand remains resilient despite higher prices from trade policy measures. A widening deficit could weaken the dollar, whilst improvement may support USD positioning ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Trading considerations:

USD Index (DXY): Trade deficit trends impact dollar valuation

Commodities: Export data influences crude oil and agricultural product prices

Currency Pairs: USD/CAD correlation with North American trade flows

UK property market data offers insights into consumer confidence and household wealth. Following the Bank of England's cautious rate stance, housing trends signal credit conditions and spending capacity.

Additional Tuesday data:

Canada Trade Balance (August)

Germany Factory Orders (August)

France Trade Balance (August)

Japan Household Spending (August)

Philippines Inflation (September)

Why this is the week's most important event: The Federal Reserve FOMC minutes will reveal detailed discussions behind September's first rate cut of 2025. With policymakers deeply split—nine forecasting two more cuts, seven expecting no cuts or increases, and one anticipating more aggressive easing—the minutes will clarify the Fed's reaction function to evolving economic data.

Key details to watch:

Trading implications:

USD pairs: Dovish minutes weaken dollar; hawkish tone strengthens

US Indices: S&P 500, Nasdaq sensitive to rate expectations

Gold: Benefits from dovish Fed outlook

US Treasuries: Yield curve movements based on rate path clarity

New Zealand's Reserve Bank announces its monetary policy decision under new Governor Anna Breman's leadership. The RBNZ cut rates to 3.0% previously, responding to double-dip recession risks after Q2 GDP contracted year-on-year. Markets expect further easing, but the magnitude and forward guidance will drive NZD volatility.

NZD trading strategy:

50bp cut = significant NZD weakness

25bp cut with dovish guidance = moderate NZD decline

Hold with data-dependent stance = NZD strength

Thailand's central bank balances inflation management against growth support amid global headwinds.

Wednesday's other key releases:

Germany Industrial Production (August)

Sweden Inflation (September, preliminary)

Japan Current Account (August)

Philippines Unemployment Rate (August)

Taiwan Inflation (September)

Why Powell's remarks matter: Following Wednesday's FOMC minutes, Jerome Powell's speech offers real-time interpretation and potential clarification of policy stance. Powell has previously cautioned against automatic rate cut expectations, emphasising data dependency. His commentary on employment trends, inflation persistence, and trade policy impacts will drive immediate market reactions.

Questions markets want answered:

Is the Fed's easing cycle front-loaded or gradual?

How does the Fed view tariff-related inflation—temporary or structural?

What labour market metrics trigger further cuts?

Are financial conditions appropriate for current economic state?

Live trading considerations:

High volatility window: USD, gold, and equity indices react instantly

Options traders: Implied volatility spikes around speech timing

Algorithmic response: Algorithmic trading amplifies initial reactions to key phrases

Weekly unemployment claims provide the freshest labour market data, crucial given Fed concerns about weakening employment. Rising claims support dovish policy expectations.

Export data from Europe's manufacturing powerhouse signals global demand strength and eurozone external balances.

Thursday's additional releases:

Brazil Inflation (September)

Mexico Inflation (September)

US Wholesale Inventories (August)

UK RICS House Price Balance (September)

Turkey Industrial Production (August)

Philippines BSP Interest Rate Decision

Taiwan Trade (September)

The UK labour market faces scrutiny following September PMI data showing steep job losses and economic deceleration. The recruitment industry survey provides forward-looking insights into hiring intentions and wage pressures—critical inputs for Bank of England policy.

GBP trading implications:

Weak jobs data = GBP/USD downside pressure

Wage growth moderation = dovish BoE expectations

Hiring stabilisation = Sterling support

Canadian jobs data influences Bank of Canada policy expectations and USD/CAD positioning. Employment growth and wage trends signal domestic demand strength.

Consumer confidence reflects household spending intentions and inflation expectations, key forward indicators for economic momentum.

Friday's other releases:

Mexico Industrial Production (August)

Norway Inflation (September)

Sweden GDP (August)

Switzerland Consumer Confidence (September)

Italy Industrial Production (August)

Malaysia Industrial Production (August)

USD Pairs: Reduce position sizes ahead of FOMC minutes and Powell speech due to elevated volatility

EUR/USD: Monitor eurozone retail sales on Monday for directional bias

GBP/USD: UK jobs data on Friday may extend recent weakness if employment deteriorates

NZD/USD: RBNZ decision on Wednesday drives short-term direction

Gold: Benefits from dovish Fed rhetoric and rate cut expectations

Crude Oil: US trade data and inventory reports influence supply/demand outlook

Industrial Metals: China market closure Mon-Wed reduces liquidity

Monday 6 October:

Eurozone Retail Sales (Aug) – 11:00 CET

Construction PMI – France, Germany, Italy, UK

Tuesday 7 October:

US Trade Balance (Aug) – 14:30 CET

UK Halifax House Prices (Sep)

Wednesday 8 October:

FOMC Minutes (Sep meeting) – 20:00 CET [HIGH IMPACT]

RBNZ Rate Decision – 03:00 CET [CENTRAL BANK]

Germany Industrial Production (Aug)

Thursday 9 October:

Jerome Powell Speech – Time TBC [HIGH IMPACT]

US Initial Jobless Claims – 14:30 CET

Germany Trade (Aug)

Friday 10 October:

UK KPMG/REC Jobs Report (Sep) – 00:01 CET

Canada Employment (Sep) – 14:30 CET

US Consumer Sentiment (Oct prelim) – 16:00 CET

Besides the above, traders may want to keep track of the following earnings reports

Constellation Brands

Pepsico

Delta Air Lines

Levi Strauss

Tilray Brands 

(Source: Nasdaq)

The week ahead delivers critical monetary policy insights that will shape trading strategies into year-end. The FOMC minutes and Powell speech represent the week's highest-impact events, with potential to reset market expectations for the Fed rate decision path. European data tests the sustainability of the eurozone's fragile recovery, whilst Asia-Pacific central bank decisions amid growth concerns will drive regional currency movements.

Key takeaways for traders:

Wednesday-Thursday Fed events dominate risk sentiment

Volatility likely spikes around Powell remarks

Eurozone and UK data provide regional trading opportunities

Inflation reports influence emerging market currencies

Reduced liquidity due to China market closures

Traders may want to implement appropriate risk management, reduce leverage around high-impact announcements, and stay alert for sudden market moves as algorithms react to Fed communication.

*Past performance does not reflect future results. The above are only projections and should not be taken as investment advice. 

The Federal Reserve will publish the FOMC meeting minutes from September's policy meeting on Wednesday, 8 October 2025 at 20:00 CET (14:00 ET). These minutes detail policymaker discussions behind the decision to cut interest rates for the first time in 2025.

The exact timing of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Thursday, 9 October has not been specified. Traders should monitor Fed communication channels and financial news wires for confirmation. Powell speeches typically occur during US market hours.

FOMC members show significant divergence on 2025 rate expectations: nine policymakers forecast two additional rate cuts, seven anticipate no cuts or potential increases, and one expects more aggressive easing beyond two cuts. This split reflects conflicting signals from weakening employment data versus persistent tariff-related inflation.

Three central banks make monetary policy announcements: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (Wednesday, 03:00 CET), Bank of Thailand (Wednesday), and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas in the Philippines (Thursday). The RBNZ decision is particularly significant as new Governor Anna Breman chairs her first meeting amid double-dip recession concerns.

Key UK releases include Halifax house price data (Tuesday), RICS House Price Balance (Thursday), and the KPMG/REC Report on Jobs (Friday). These indicators provide insights into the property market and labour market trends following disappointing September PMI data showing economic deceleration and steep job losses.

Eurozone retail sales for August (released Monday) indicate whether consumer spending is supporting the region's tentative economic recovery. Strong retail performance would confirm domestic demand resilience signalled by recent PMI surveys, potentially supporting the euro and European equity indices. Weakness may reinforce expectations for prolonged ECB accommodation.

FOMC minutes provide detailed accounts of policy discussions, including individual policymaker views, economic assessments, and debates over specific policy actions. Press conferences offer real-time Chair commentary but lack the depth and multiple perspectives found in minutes. Minutes reveal nuances not captured in the post-meeting statement.

Markets anticipate the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will continue its easing cycle, potentially delivering another rate cut from the current 3.0% level. New Zealand faces double-dip recession risks after Q2 GDP contracted year-on-year, prompting expectations for accommodative monetary policy. The magnitude of any cut and Governor Breman's forward guidance will drive NZD volatility.

Multiple economies publish CPI figures: Thailand (Monday), Philippines (Tuesday), Sweden preliminary (Wednesday), Taiwan (Wednesday), Brazil (Thursday), Mexico (Thursday), and Norway (Friday). These readings influence central bank policy expectations and emerging market currency valuations.

Risk management strategies include: reducing position sizes before major announcements, widening stop-loss orders to avoid premature exits from volatility spikes, avoiding new positions immediately before FOMC minutes and Powell speech, using options strategies to hedge directional exposure, and monitoring economic calendar timing to avoid being caught off-guard by sudden market moves.